The NL Central sent three teams to the postseason last year — more than any other division in the National League. The Brewers won 97 games and the division title before getting swept by the Dodgers in the NLCS. The Cubs won 92 and pushed Milwaukee to five games in the NLDS. The Reds snuck in as the final wild card on the last day of the regular season. It was the best the division has been in years, and the 2026 version might be even more competitive from top to bottom.
Tomorrow afternoon, the regular season starts. Tonight is Yankees-Giants, and then the rest of baseball gets going on Thursday. Before it all kicks off, here's a quick look at where every NL Central team stands heading into Opening Day.
Chicago Cubs — The Favorites
2025: 92-70 (2nd in NL Central). Beat Padres in WC Series, lost to Brewers 3-2 in NLDS.
Every projection system and every sportsbook has the Cubs on top of this division. That hasn't happened in a while — the Brewers have won the NL Central four of the last five years, and Chicago hasn't taken the division since the shortened 2020 season. But the Cubs' 2025 roster was already very good, and the front office went out and made it better.
The headline addition is Alex Bregman on a five-year, $175 million deal — a three-time All-Star who brings postseason experience, lineup protection, and Gold Glove-caliber defense at third base. Edward Cabrera arrived via trade from Miami and gives the rotation another high-upside arm. The bullpen was almost entirely rebuilt. And Pete Crow-Armstrong, coming off a 30-30 season with a Gold Glove, just finalized a long-term extension worth nine figures to stay in Chicago through at least 2032.
The lineup is stacked. Five returning players hit 20-plus home runs last year, including Michael Busch (34), Seiya Suzuki (32 HR, 103 RBI), and Crow-Armstrong's 31. Nico Hoerner hit .297 with a 6.2-bWAR season. The infield of Bregman, Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Busch might be the best in baseball by ZiPS projections. Moises Ballesteros, the 22-year-old catcher/DH who hit .355 in spring training, made the Opening Day roster and could be in the Rookie of the Year conversation by July.
The rotation is deep. Matthew Boyd earned the Opening Day start after a first-career All-Star nod in 2025. Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga, Cabrera, and Jameson Taillon round it out — and Justin Steele is expected to return from Tommy John surgery around May or June, giving the Cubs a potential six-man rotation of starters who'd be the No. 2 or 3 on most staffs. Daniel Palencia — the guy who closed out the WBC championship for Venezuela without allowing a hit in five innings — is the closer.
The concerns are real, though. The rotation's 2025 ERA (3.83, 8th in MLB) significantly outperformed its FIP (4.25, 19th), meaning there's likely some ERA regression coming. Kyle Tucker left for the Dodgers and Bregman may not fully replace that bat. Suzuki is starting the season on the 10-day IL with a knee injury from the WBC, and Taillon's spring was ugly — a 19.50 ERA over his last three starts. Those are legitimate flags.
But the talent, the depth, and Craig Counsell managing it all make the Cubs the clear team to beat. The betting line sits at 88.5 wins, and they're +110 to +125 to win the division. Most projection systems land in the high 80s to low 90s. This is the best-positioned Cubs team since the 2016 championship core.
Milwaukee Brewers — The Machine That Won't Stop
2025: 97-65 (1st in NL Central, franchise record). Won NLDS over Cubs 3-2, swept by Dodgers 4-0 in NLCS.
You know the script by now. The Brewers lose their best players, everyone picks them to drop, and then they win 90-something games anyway. PECOTA projected them for 81 wins before 2025. They won 97. The projection systems have them at 81 again this year. Feel free to decide how much weight to give that number.
The departures this winter were significant. Freddy Peralta — their ace, a 2.70 ERA with 204 strikeouts — was traded to the Mets. Caleb Durbin went to Boston. Isaac Collins went to Kansas City. Rhys Hoskins, Erick Fedde, and Danny Jansen are all gone. Milwaukee's front office does this every single year, and the question is always the same: is this the year the talent drain finally catches up?
The rotation is where it gets interesting. Jacob Misiorowski — a fireballing right-hander with ace upside — gets the Opening Day start. Behind him, it's Chad Patrick, Kyle Harrison (dealing with a minor blister issue), Brandon Sproat (acquired in the Peralta trade), and Brandon Woodruff, who's returning from shoulder surgery with diminished velocity. That's a young, unproven staff. The kind of rotation that could be electric or could implode by June.
But the position-player core is quietly excellent. Jackson Chourio is 22 and gets better every time he plays. William Contreras should bounce back after playing through a fractured finger last year. Brice Turang broke out in 2025 and made Team USA for the WBC. Sal Frelick took a big step. And Milwaukee's farm system is ranked No. 1 in baseball by most outlets. Pat Murphy is an excellent manager working with a deep, athletic roster. Don't count them out. Everyone does, and everyone is wrong.
Cincinnati Reds — Sleeper or Pretender?
2025: 83-79 (3rd in NL Central). Clinched final WC spot on last day of regular season. Swept by Dodgers 2-0 in WC Series.
The Reds' 2026 season starts with a significant absence. Hunter Greene — 2.76 ERA over the last two years, average fastball of 99.5 mph, expected to be the Opening Day starter — underwent elbow surgery on March 11 to remove bone chips and isn't expected back until July at the earliest. For a pitching-first team that got to the postseason on the strength of its rotation, that's a major blow.
The good news is that the rotation has enough depth to survive without him. Andrew Abbott gets the Opening Day start after earning his first All-Star selection last year. Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, and two high-end prospects — Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft — round out a staff the Reds are carrying six deep to begin the season. When Greene does come back, this becomes one of the deepest rotations in the league.
The biggest offseason addition was Eugenio Suarez, who returns to Cincinnati after hitting 49 home runs in 2025 between Arizona and Seattle. He's a strikeout-or-homer player at 34, but that kind of power behind Elly De La Cruz is exactly what this lineup needed. De La Cruz remains the engine — electric tools, franchise-altering talent, a first-round fantasy pick in most formats. Sal Stewart lost 25-plus pounds this offseason and looks like a legitimate rookie contributor. Terry Francona, the likely future Hall of Famer, keeps this group pointed in the right direction.
The Reds have hovered around .500 for years — 83 wins last year, 77 the year before that, 82 in 2023. The projection systems have them in the 78-to-80-win range again. The question is whether Suarez's power, the young pitching depth, and Greene's second-half return are enough to push them past that ceiling and into the wild card race. There's a path. It's just narrow.
Pittsburgh Pirates — Most Improved, but Is It Enough?
2025: 71-91 (5th in NL Central). Ten consecutive years without a playoff appearance.
The Pirates had the best pitching in the NL Central last year and the worst offense in baseball. Not the worst in the division — the worst in the entire sport. Dead last in runs (583), home runs (117), batting average (.232), and OPS (.655). Paul Skenes won the NL Cy Young Award with 216 strikeouts and a career 1.96 ERA through 55 starts, and it didn't matter because nobody behind him could score.
GM Ben Cherington finally addressed it with the most aggressive offseason of his tenure. Brandon Lowe, who led all second basemen with 31 home runs last year, arrived from Tampa Bay. Marcell Ozuna signed a one-year deal after hitting 39 home runs in 2024 and 21 in an off year. Ryan O'Hearn, a 2025 AL All-Star, adds another professional bat. It's not a top-five lineup, but it shouldn't be the worst in baseball again, either.
The rotation behind Skenes is young and loaded with strikeout potential. Mitch Keller is a reliable veteran. Braxton Ashcraft finally got healthy and opened eyes last year. Bubba Chandler, MLB Pipeline's No. 11 prospect, has a devastating slider-fastball combination. And Konnor Griffin — the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball — will start in Triple-A but could arrive at some point during the season.
The problem is that jumping from 71 wins to the mid-80s is an enormous ask. Very few teams improve by 14-plus wins in a single offseason. Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, and Henry Davis all need bounce-back years. Ozuna is 35 and a DH-only player. Skenes hasn't signed an extension yet and the contract clock is ticking. The Pirates are better. The question is whether "better" is "good enough."
St. Louis Cardinals — Year One of the Teardown
2025: 78-84 (4th in NL Central).
The Cardinals fired longtime GM John Mozeliak after years of stagnation, hired Chaim Bloom as president of baseball operations, extended manager Oli Marmol through 2028, and then proceeded to gut the roster. Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Brendan Donovan were all traded — St. Louis ate roughly $59 million in salary across those deals to acquire young pitching prospects and draft picks. The only significant addition was Dustin May on a one-year prove-it deal.
What's left is a young core that could be interesting in two or three years. Masyn Winn might be the best defensive shortstop in baseball. Alec Burleson broke out with a Silver Slugger season. JJ Wetherholt, a top-10 prospect, made the Opening Day roster without ever having played an MLB game. And Jordan Walker — once the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball — needs to figure it out this year or the tools-over-production debate shifts permanently against him.
The rotation is the weakest in the division by a wide margin. Matthew Liberatore is the headliner by default. There's no clear ace, no proven frontline arm, and the bullpen depth behind them is thin. Projection systems have the Cardinals in the low-to-mid 70s for wins. This is a rebuild year — 2026 is about evaluation, not contention.
Predicted Order of Finish
1. Chicago Cubs — 91 wins. Best roster in the division, deepest pitching staff once Steele returns, and Counsell running the show. The NL Central is theirs to lose.
2. Milwaukee Brewers — 86 wins. They always outperform their projections. The rotation is a question mark, but the core is young and the front office knows what it's doing. Wild card contender.
3. Cincinnati Reds — 80 wins. Greene's return in July is the X-factor. If the young starters hold down the fort until then, this team has the talent to push for a wild card spot. If not, it's another .500 year.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates — 79 wins. The most improved team in the division, but 71 to 85-plus is a bridge too far in one offseason. Skenes is the best pitcher in baseball. The rest of the roster needs to catch up.
5. St. Louis Cardinals — 72 wins. A rebuild year with young talent to watch and not much else. Wetherholt and Winn are the future. The present is going to be uncomfortable.
Tomorrow afternoon. Wrigley Field. Boyd on the mound. For the first time in a long time, the Cubs enter the season as the team to beat in the NL Central — and with the Brewers retooling, the Reds missing their ace, and the rest of the division still figuring itself out, the path to a division title is as clear as it's been in years. The question, as always, is whether the Cubs can take it.